IPCC:AR6/SROCC/SPM - Revision history

Laura: /* Enabling Conditions */

2026-06-01T06:03:05Z

Enabling Conditions

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:03, 1 June 2026
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	'''C.4. Enabling climate resilience and sustainable development depends critically on urgent and ambitious emissions reductions coupled with coordinated sustained and increasingly ambitious adaptation actions (''very high confidence''). Key enablers for implementing effective responses to climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere include intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across spatial scales and planning horizons. Education and climate literacy, monitoring and forecasting, use of all available knowledge sources, sharing of data, information and knowledge, finance, addressing social vulnerability and equity, and institutional support are also essential. Such investments enable capacity-building, social learning, and participation in context-specific adaptation, as well as the negotiation of trade-offs and realisation of co-benefits in reducing short-term risks and building long-term resilience and sustainability (''high confidence''). This report reflects the state of science for ocean and cryosphere for low levels of global warming (1.5°C), as also assessed in earlier IPCC and IPBES reports. {1.1, 1.5, 1.8.3, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.4, Figure 2.7, 2.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4, 5.2.2, Box 5.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, 6.8, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}'''		'''C.4. Enabling climate resilience and sustainable development depends critically on urgent and ambitious emissions reductions coupled with coordinated sustained and increasingly ambitious adaptation actions (''very high confidence''). Key enablers for implementing effective responses to climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere include intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across spatial scales and planning horizons. Education and climate literacy, monitoring and forecasting, use of all available knowledge sources, sharing of data, information and knowledge, finance, addressing social vulnerability and equity, and institutional support are also essential. Such investments enable capacity-building, social learning, and participation in context-specific adaptation, as well as the negotiation of trade-offs and realisation of co-benefits in reducing short-term risks and building long-term resilience and sustainability (''high confidence''). This report reflects the state of science for ocean and cryosphere for low levels of global warming (1.5°C), as also assessed in earlier IPCC and IPBES reports. {1.1, 1.5, 1.8.3, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.4, Figure 2.7, 2.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4, 5.2.2, Box 5.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, 6.8, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}'''

	'''C.4.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] In light of observed and projected changes in the ocean and cryosphere, many nations will face challenges to adapt, even with ambitious mitigation (''very high confidence''). In a high emissions scenario, many ocean- and cryosphere-dependent communities are projected to face adaptation limits (e.g. biophysical, geographical, financial, technical, social, political and institutional) during the second half of the 21st century. Low emission pathways, for comparison, limit the risks from ocean and cryosphere changes in this century and beyond and enable more effective responses (''high confidence''), whilst also creating co-benefits. Profound economic and institutional transformative change will enable Climate Resilient Development Pathways in the ocean and cryosphere context (''high confidence''). {1.1, 1.4–1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 1–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.4, Box 3.2, Figure 3.4, Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3, 3.4.3, 4.2.2, 4.2.3, 4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.4.6, 5.4.2, 5.5.3, 6.9.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}		'''C.4.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] In light of observed and projected changes in the ocean and cryosphere, many nations will face challenges to adapt, even with ambitious mitigation (''very high confidence''). In a high emissions scenario, many ocean- and cryosphere-dependent communities are projected to face adaptation limits (e.g. biophysical, geographical, financial, technical, social, political and institutional) during the second half of the 21st century. Low emission pathways, for comparison, limit the risks from ocean and cryosphere changes in this century and beyond and enable more effective responses (''high confidence''), whilst also creating co-benefits. Profound economic and institutional transformative change will enable Climate Resilient Development Pathways in the ocean and cryosphere context (''high confidence''). {1.1, 1.4–1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 1–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.4, Box 3.2, Figure 3.4, Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3, 3.4.3, 4.2.2, 4.2.3, 4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.4.6, 5.4.2, 5.5.3, 6.9.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}

	'''C.4.2''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across scales, jurisdictions, sectors, policy domains and planning horizons can enable effective responses to changes in the ocean, cryosphere and to sea level rise (''high confidence''). Regional cooperation, including treaties and conventions, can support adaptation action; however, the extent to which responding to impacts and losses arising from changes in the ocean and cryosphere is enabled through regional policy frameworks is currently limited ''(high confidence''). Institutional arrangements that provide strong multiscale linkages with local and Indigenous communities benefit adaptation (''high confidence''). Coordination and complementarity between national and transboundary regional policies can support efforts to address risks to resource security and management, such as water and fisheries (''medium confidence''). {2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.4, Box 2.4, 2.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9.2}		'''C.4.2''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] Intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across scales, jurisdictions, sectors, policy domains and planning horizons can enable effective responses to changes in the ocean, cryosphere and to sea level rise (''high confidence''). Regional cooperation, including treaties and conventions, can support adaptation action; however, the extent to which responding to impacts and losses arising from changes in the ocean and cryosphere is enabled through regional policy frameworks is currently limited ''(high confidence''). Institutional arrangements that provide strong multiscale linkages with local and Indigenous communities benefit adaptation (''high confidence''). Coordination and complementarity between national and transboundary regional policies can support efforts to address risks to resource security and management, such as water and fisheries (''medium confidence''). {2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.4, Box 2.4, 2.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9.2}

	'''C.4.3''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Experience to date – for example, in responding to sea level rise, water-related risks in some high mountains, and climate change risks in the Arctic – also reveal the enabling influence of taking a long-term perspective when making short-term decisions, explicitly accounting for uncertainty of context-specific risks beyond 2050 (''high confidence''), and building governance capabilities to tackle complex risks (''medium confidence''). {2.3.1, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9, Figure SPM.5}		'''C.4.3''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] Experience to date – for example, in responding to sea level rise, water-related risks in some high mountains, and climate change risks in the Arctic – also reveal the enabling influence of taking a long-term perspective when making short-term decisions, explicitly accounting for uncertainty of context-specific risks beyond 2050 (''high confidence''), and building governance capabilities to tackle complex risks (''medium confidence''). {2.3.1, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9, Figure SPM.5}

	'''C.4.4''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Investments in education and capacity building at various levels and scales facilitates social learning and long-term capability for context-specific responses to reduce risk and enhance resilience (''high confidence''). Specific activities include utilization of multiple knowledge systems and regional climate information into decision making, and the engagement of local communities, Indigenous peoples, and relevant stakeholders in adaptive governance arrangements and planning frameworks (''medium confidence).'' Promotion of climate literacy and drawing on local, Indigenous and scientific knowledge systems enables public awareness, understanding and social learning about locality-specific risk and response potential (''high confidence''). Such investments can develop, and in many cases transform existing institutions and enable informed, interactive and adaptive governance arrangements (''high confidence'') ''.'' {1.8.3, 2.3.2, Figure 2.7, Box 2.4, 2.4, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9}		'''C.4.4''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] Investments in education and capacity building at various levels and scales facilitates social learning and long-term capability for context-specific responses to reduce risk and enhance resilience (''high confidence''). Specific activities include utilization of multiple knowledge systems and regional climate information into decision making, and the engagement of local communities, Indigenous peoples, and relevant stakeholders in adaptive governance arrangements and planning frameworks (''medium confidence).'' Promotion of climate literacy and drawing on local, Indigenous and scientific knowledge systems enables public awareness, understanding and social learning about locality-specific risk and response potential (''high confidence''). Such investments can develop, and in many cases transform existing institutions and enable informed, interactive and adaptive governance arrangements (''high confidence'') ''.'' {1.8.3, 2.3.2, Figure 2.7, Box 2.4, 2.4, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9}

	'''C.4.5''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Context-specific monitoring and forecasting of changes in the ocean and the cryosphere informs adaptation planning and implementation, and facilitates robust decisions on trade-offs between short- and long-term gains (''medium confidence''). Sustained long-term monitoring, sharing of data, information and knowledge and improved context-specific forecasts, including early warning systems to predict more extreme El Niño/La Niña events, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, help to manage negative impacts from ocean changes such as losses in fisheries, and adverse impacts on human health, food security, agriculture, coral reefs, aquaculture, wildfire, tourism, conservation, drought and flood (''high confidence''). {2.4, 2.5, 3.5.2, 4.4.4, 5.5.2, 6.3.1, 6.3.3, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, 6.9}		'''C.4.5''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] Context-specific monitoring and forecasting of changes in the ocean and the cryosphere informs adaptation planning and implementation, and facilitates robust decisions on trade-offs between short- and long-term gains (''medium confidence''). Sustained long-term monitoring, sharing of data, information and knowledge and improved context-specific forecasts, including early warning systems to predict more extreme El Niño/La Niña events, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, help to manage negative impacts from ocean changes such as losses in fisheries, and adverse impacts on human health, food security, agriculture, coral reefs, aquaculture, wildfire, tourism, conservation, drought and flood (''high confidence''). {2.4, 2.5, 3.5.2, 4.4.4, 5.5.2, 6.3.1, 6.3.3, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, 6.9}

	'''C.4.6''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Prioritising measures to address social vulnerability and equity underpins efforts to promote fair and just climate resilience and sustainable development (''high confidence''), and can be helped by creating safe community settings for meaningful public participation, deliberation and conflict resolution (''medium confidence''). {Box 2.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, Figure SPM.5}		'''C.4.6''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] Prioritising measures to address social vulnerability and equity underpins efforts to promote fair and just climate resilience and sustainable development (''high confidence''), and can be helped by creating safe community settings for meaningful public participation, deliberation and conflict resolution (''medium confidence''). {Box 2.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, Figure SPM.5}

	'''C.4.7''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] This assessment of the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate reveals the benefits of ambitious mitigation and effective adaptation for sustainable development and, conversely, the escalating costs and risks of delayed action. The potential to chart Climate Resilient Development Pathways varies within and among ocean, high mountain and polar land regions. Realising this potential depends on transformative change. This highlights the urgency of prioritising timely, ambitious, coordinated and enduring action. (''very high confidence'') {1.1, 1.8, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, 2.3, 2.4, 3.5, 4.2.1, 4.2.2, 4.3.4, 4.4, Table 4.9, 5.5, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 9 ''',''' Figure SPM.5}		'''C.4.7''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] This assessment of the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate reveals the benefits of ambitious mitigation and effective adaptation for sustainable development and, conversely, the escalating costs and risks of delayed action. The potential to chart Climate Resilient Development Pathways varies within and among ocean, high mountain and polar land regions. Realising this potential depends on transformative change. This highlights the urgency of prioritising timely, ambitious, coordinated and enduring action. (''very high confidence'') {1.1, 1.8, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, 2.3, 2.4, 3.5, 4.2.1, 4.2.2, 4.3.4, 4.4, Table 4.9, 5.5, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 9 ''',''' Figure SPM.5}

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Laura: /* Strengthening Response Options */

2026-06-01T06:02:38Z

Strengthening Response Options

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	'''C.3. Coastal communities face challenging choices in crafting context-specific and integrated responses to sea level rise that balance costs, benefits and trade-offs of available options and that can be adjusted over time (''high confidence''). All types of options, including protection, accommodation, ecosystem-based adaptation, coastal advance and retreat, wherever possible, can play important roles in such integrated responses (''high confidence''). {4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}'''		'''C.3. Coastal communities face challenging choices in crafting context-specific and integrated responses to sea level rise that balance costs, benefits and trade-offs of available options and that can be adjusted over time (''high confidence''). All types of options, including protection, accommodation, ecosystem-based adaptation, coastal advance and retreat, wherever possible, can play important roles in such integrated responses (''high confidence''). {4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}'''

	'''C.3.1.''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] The higher the sea levels rise, the more challenging is coastal protection, mainly due to economic, financial and social barriers rather than due to technical limits (''high confidence''). In the coming decades, reducing local drivers of exposure and vulnerability such as coastal urbanization and human-induced subsidence constitute effective responses (''high confidence''). Where space is limited, and the value of exposed assets is high (e.g., in cities), hard protection (e.g., dikes) is ''likely'' to be a cost-efficient response option during the 21st century taking into account the specifics of the context (''high confidence''), but resource-limited areas may not be able to afford such investments. Where space is available, ecosystem-based adaptation can reduce coastal risk and provide multiple other benefits such as carbon storage, improved water quality, biodiversity conservation and livelihood support (''medium confidence''). {4.3.2, 4.4.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}		'''C.3.1.''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png\|100px]] The higher the sea levels rise, the more challenging is coastal protection, mainly due to economic, financial and social barriers rather than due to technical limits (''high confidence''). In the coming decades, reducing local drivers of exposure and vulnerability such as coastal urbanization and human-induced subsidence constitute effective responses (''high confidence''). Where space is limited, and the value of exposed assets is high (e.g., in cities), hard protection (e.g., dikes) is ''likely'' to be a cost-efficient response option during the 21st century taking into account the specifics of the context (''high confidence''), but resource-limited areas may not be able to afford such investments. Where space is available, ecosystem-based adaptation can reduce coastal risk and provide multiple other benefits such as carbon storage, improved water quality, biodiversity conservation and livelihood support (''medium confidence''). {4.3.2, 4.4.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}

	'''C.3.2''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] Some coastal accommodation measures, such as early warning systems and flood-proofing of buildings, are often both low cost and highly cost-efficient under current sea levels (''high confidence''). Under projected sea level rise and increase in coastal hazards some of these measures become less effective unless combined with other measures (''high confidence''). All types of options, including protection, accommodation, ecosystem-based adaptation, coastal advance and planned relocation, if alternative localities are available, can play important roles in such integrated responses (''high confidence''). Where the community affected is small, or in the aftermath of a disaster, reducing risk by coastal planned relocations is worth considering if safe alternative localities are available. Such planned relocation can be socially, culturally, financially and politically constrained (''very high confidence''). {4.4.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SPM B3}		'''C.3.2''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png\|100px]] Some coastal accommodation measures, such as early warning systems and flood-proofing of buildings, are often both low cost and highly cost-efficient under current sea levels (''high confidence''). Under projected sea level rise and increase in coastal hazards some of these measures become less effective unless combined with other measures (''high confidence''). All types of options, including protection, accommodation, ecosystem-based adaptation, coastal advance and planned relocation, if alternative localities are available, can play important roles in such integrated responses (''high confidence''). Where the community affected is small, or in the aftermath of a disaster, reducing risk by coastal planned relocations is worth considering if safe alternative localities are available. Such planned relocation can be socially, culturally, financially and politically constrained (''very high confidence''). {4.4.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SPM B3}

	'''C.3.3''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] Responses to sea level rise and associated risk reduction present society with profound governance challenges, resulting from the uncertainty about the magnitude and rate of future sea level rise, vexing trade-offs between societal goals (e.g., safety, conservation, economic development, intra- and inter-generational equity), limited resources, and conflicting interests and values among diverse stakeholders (''high confidence''). These challenges can be eased using locally appropriate combinations of decision analysis, land-use planning, public participation, diverse knowledge systems and conflict resolution approaches that are adjusted over time as circumstances change (''high confidence''). {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9}		'''C.3.3''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png\|100px]] Responses to sea level rise and associated risk reduction present society with profound governance challenges, resulting from the uncertainty about the magnitude and rate of future sea level rise, vexing trade-offs between societal goals (e.g., safety, conservation, economic development, intra- and inter-generational equity), limited resources, and conflicting interests and values among diverse stakeholders (''high confidence''). These challenges can be eased using locally appropriate combinations of decision analysis, land-use planning, public participation, diverse knowledge systems and conflict resolution approaches that are adjusted over time as circumstances change (''high confidence''). {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9}

	'''C.3.4''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] Despite the large uncertainties about the magnitude and rate of post 2050 sea level rise, many coastal decisions with time horizons of decades to over a century are being made now (e.g., critical infrastructure, coastal protection works, city planning) and can be improved by taking relative sea level rise into account, favouring flexible responses (i.e., those that can be adapted over time) supported by monitoring systems for early warning signals, periodically adjusting decisions (i.e., adaptive decision making), using robust decision-making approaches, expert judgement, scenario-building, and multiple knowledge systems (''high confidence''). The sea level rise range that needs to be considered for planning and implementing coastal responses depends on the risk tolerance of stakeholders. Stakeholders with higher risk tolerance (e.g., those planning for investments that can be very easily adapted to unforeseen conditions) often prefer to use the ''likely'' range of projections, while stakeholders with a lower risk tolerance (e.g., those deciding on critical infrastructure) also consider global and local mean sea level above the upper end of the ''likely'' range (globally 1.1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100) and from methods characterised by lower confidence such as from expert elicitation. {1.8.1, 1.9.2, 4.2.3, 4.4.4, Figure 4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, Figure SPM.5, SPM B3}		'''C.3.4''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png\|100px]] Despite the large uncertainties about the magnitude and rate of post 2050 sea level rise, many coastal decisions with time horizons of decades to over a century are being made now (e.g., critical infrastructure, coastal protection works, city planning) and can be improved by taking relative sea level rise into account, favouring flexible responses (i.e., those that can be adapted over time) supported by monitoring systems for early warning signals, periodically adjusting decisions (i.e., adaptive decision making), using robust decision-making approaches, expert judgement, scenario-building, and multiple knowledge systems (''high confidence''). The sea level rise range that needs to be considered for planning and implementing coastal responses depends on the risk tolerance of stakeholders. Stakeholders with higher risk tolerance (e.g., those planning for investments that can be very easily adapted to unforeseen conditions) often prefer to use the ''likely'' range of projections, while stakeholders with a lower risk tolerance (e.g., those deciding on critical infrastructure) also consider global and local mean sea level above the upper end of the ''likely'' range (globally 1.1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100) and from methods characterised by lower confidence such as from expert elicitation. {1.8.1, 1.9.2, 4.2.3, 4.4.4, Figure 4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, Figure SPM.5, SPM B3}

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Laura: /* Strengthening Response Options */

2026-06-01T06:02:18Z

Strengthening Response Options

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:02, 1 June 2026
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	'''C.2.5''' [[File:c2dab058529f43e723961cf4dccd97c2 SPM-Icon-ooxx.png\|100px]] Ocean renewable energy can support climate change mitigation, and can comprise energy extraction from offshore winds, tides, waves, thermal and salinity gradient and algal biofuels. The emerging demand for alternative energy sources is expected to generate economic opportunities for the ocean renewable energy sector (''high confidence''), although their potential may also be affected by climate change (''low confidence''). {5.4.2, 5.5.1, Figure 5.23}		'''C.2.5''' [[File:c2dab058529f43e723961cf4dccd97c2 SPM-Icon-ooxx.png\|100px]] Ocean renewable energy can support climate change mitigation, and can comprise energy extraction from offshore winds, tides, waves, thermal and salinity gradient and algal biofuels. The emerging demand for alternative energy sources is expected to generate economic opportunities for the ocean renewable energy sector (''high confidence''), although their potential may also be affected by climate change (''low confidence''). {5.4.2, 5.5.1, Figure 5.23}

	'''C.2.6''' [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png]] Integrated water management approaches across multiple scales can be effective at addressing impacts and leveraging opportunities from cryosphere changes in high mountain areas. These approaches also support water resource management through the development and optimization of multi-purpose storage and release of water from reservoirs (''medium confidence''), with consideration of potentially negative impacts to ecosystems and communities. Diversification of tourism activities throughout the year supports adaptation in high mountain economies (''medium confidence''). {2.3.1, 2.3.5}		'''C.2.6''' [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png\|100px]] Integrated water management approaches across multiple scales can be effective at addressing impacts and leveraging opportunities from cryosphere changes in high mountain areas. These approaches also support water resource management through the development and optimization of multi-purpose storage and release of water from reservoirs (''medium confidence''), with consideration of potentially negative impacts to ecosystems and communities. Diversification of tourism activities throughout the year supports adaptation in high mountain economies (''medium confidence''). {2.3.1, 2.3.5}

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	==== Enabling Conditions ====		==== Enabling Conditions ====

Laura: /* C Implementing responses to ocean and cryosphere change */

2026-06-01T06:02:04Z

C Implementing responses to ocean and cryosphere change

Laura: /* Projected Risks for People and Ecosystem Services */

2026-06-01T06:01:30Z

Projected Risks for People and Ecosystem Services

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	'''B.9. Increased mean and extreme sea level, alongside ocean warming and acidification, are projected to exacerbate risks for human communities in low-lying coastal areas (''high confidence''). In Arctic human communities without rapid land uplift, and in urban atoll islands, risks are projected to be moderate to high even under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) (''medium confidence''), including reaching adaptation limits (''high confidence''). Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), delta regions and resource rich coastal cities are projected to experience moderate to high risk levels after 2050 under current adaptation (''medium confidence''). Ambitious adaptation including transformative governance is expected to reduce risk (''high confidence''), but with context-specific benefits. {4.3.3, 4.3.4, SM4.3, 6.9.2, Cross-chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}'''		'''B.9. Increased mean and extreme sea level, alongside ocean warming and acidification, are projected to exacerbate risks for human communities in low-lying coastal areas (''high confidence''). In Arctic human communities without rapid land uplift, and in urban atoll islands, risks are projected to be moderate to high even under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) (''medium confidence''), including reaching adaptation limits (''high confidence''). Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), delta regions and resource rich coastal cities are projected to experience moderate to high risk levels after 2050 under current adaptation (''medium confidence''). Ambitious adaptation including transformative governance is expected to reduce risk (''high confidence''), but with context-specific benefits. {4.3.3, 4.3.4, SM4.3, 6.9.2, Cross-chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}'''

	'''B.9.1''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] In the absence of more ambitious adaptation efforts compared to today , and under current trends of increasing exposure and vulnerability of coastal communities, risks, such as erosion and land loss, flooding, salinization, and cascading impacts due to mean sea level rise and extreme events are projected to significantly increase throughout this century under all greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (''very high confidence''). Under the same assumptions, annual coastal flood damages are projected to increase by 2–3 orders of magnitude by 2100 compared to today (''high confidence''). {4.3.3, 4.3.4, Box 6.1, 6.8, SM4.3, Figures SPM.4, SPM.5}		'''B.9.1''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png\|100px]] In the absence of more ambitious adaptation efforts compared to today , and under current trends of increasing exposure and vulnerability of coastal communities, risks, such as erosion and land loss, flooding, salinization, and cascading impacts due to mean sea level rise and extreme events are projected to significantly increase throughout this century under all greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (''very high confidence''). Under the same assumptions, annual coastal flood damages are projected to increase by 2–3 orders of magnitude by 2100 compared to today (''high confidence''). {4.3.3, 4.3.4, Box 6.1, 6.8, SM4.3, Figures SPM.4, SPM.5}

	'''B.9.2''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png]] High to very high risks are approached for vulnerable communities in coral reef environments, urban atoll islands and low-lying Arctic locations from sea level rise well before the end of this century in case of high emissions scenarios. This entails adaptation limits being reached, which are the points at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions (''high confidence''). Reaching adaptation limits (e.g., biophysical, geographical, financial, technical, social, political, and institutional) depends on the emissions scenario and context-specific risk tolerance, and is projected to expand to more areas beyond 2100, due to the long-term commitment of sea level rise (''medium confidence''). Some island nations are ''likely'' to become uninhabitable due to climate-related ocean and cryosphere change (''medium confidence''), but habitability thresholds remain extremely difficult to assess. {4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SM4.3, SPM C.1, Glossary, Figure SPM.5}		'''B.9.2''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png\|100px]] High to very high risks are approached for vulnerable communities in coral reef environments, urban atoll islands and low-lying Arctic locations from sea level rise well before the end of this century in case of high emissions scenarios. This entails adaptation limits being reached, which are the points at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions (''high confidence''). Reaching adaptation limits (e.g., biophysical, geographical, financial, technical, social, political, and institutional) depends on the emissions scenario and context-specific risk tolerance, and is projected to expand to more areas beyond 2100, due to the long-term commitment of sea level rise (''medium confidence''). Some island nations are ''likely'' to become uninhabitable due to climate-related ocean and cryosphere change (''medium confidence''), but habitability thresholds remain extremely difficult to assess. {4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SM4.3, SPM C.1, Glossary, Figure SPM.5}

	'''B.9.3''' [[File:f83f15a29ea2d8a2d2ddc3ce832f4aaa SPM-Icon-oxxo.png\|100px]] Globally, a slower rate of climate-related ocean and cryosphere change provides greater adaptation opportunities (''high confidence''). While there is ''high confidence'' that ambitious adaptation, including governance for transformative change, has the potential to reduce risks in many locations, such benefits can vary between locations. At global scale, coastal protection can reduce flood risk by 2–3 orders of magnitude during the 21st century, but depends on investments on the order of tens to several hundreds of billions of US$ per year (''high confidence''). While such investments are generally cost efficient for densely populated urban areas, rural and poorer areas may be challenged to afford such investments with relative annual costs for some small island states amounting to several percent of GDP (''high confidence''). Even with m ajor adaptation efforts, residual risks and associated losses are projected to occur (''medium confidence''), but context-specific limits to adaptation and residual risks remain difficult to assess. {4.1.3, 4.2.2.4, 4.3.1, 4.3.2, 4.3.4, 4.4.3, 6.9.1, 6.9.2, Cross-Chapter Boxes 1–2 in Chapter 1, SM4.3, Figure SPM.5}		'''B.9.3''' [[File:f83f15a29ea2d8a2d2ddc3ce832f4aaa SPM-Icon-oxxo.png\|100px]] Globally, a slower rate of climate-related ocean and cryosphere change provides greater adaptation opportunities (''high confidence''). While there is ''high confidence'' that ambitious adaptation, including governance for transformative change, has the potential to reduce risks in many locations, such benefits can vary between locations. At global scale, coastal protection can reduce flood risk by 2–3 orders of magnitude during the 21st century, but depends on investments on the order of tens to several hundreds of billions of US$ per year (''high confidence''). While such investments are generally cost efficient for densely populated urban areas, rural and poorer areas may be challenged to afford such investments with relative annual costs for some small island states amounting to several percent of GDP (''high confidence''). Even with m ajor adaptation efforts, residual risks and associated losses are projected to occur (''medium confidence''), but context-specific limits to adaptation and residual risks remain difficult to assess. {4.1.3, 4.2.2.4, 4.3.1, 4.3.2, 4.3.4, 4.4.3, 6.9.1, 6.9.2, Cross-Chapter Boxes 1–2 in Chapter 1, SM4.3, Figure SPM.5}

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	'''B.8.1''' [[File:37d9ca019c63e0a7a080aaca0b2016e4 SPM-Icon-oxox.png\|100px]] Projected geographical shifts and decreases of global marine animal biomass and fish catch potential are more pronounced under RCP8.5 relative to RCP2.6 elevating the risk for income and livelihoods of dependent human communities, particularly in areas that are economically vulnerable (''medium confidence''). The projected redistribution of resources and abundance increases the risk of conflicts among fisheries, authorities or communities (''medium confidence''). Challenges to fisheries governance are widespread under RCP8.5 with regional hotspots such as the Arctic and tropical Pacific Ocean (''medium confidence''). {3.5.2, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.4.2, Figure SPM.3}		'''B.8.1''' [[File:37d9ca019c63e0a7a080aaca0b2016e4 SPM-Icon-oxox.png\|100px]] Projected geographical shifts and decreases of global marine animal biomass and fish catch potential are more pronounced under RCP8.5 relative to RCP2.6 elevating the risk for income and livelihoods of dependent human communities, particularly in areas that are economically vulnerable (''medium confidence''). The projected redistribution of resources and abundance increases the risk of conflicts among fisheries, authorities or communities (''medium confidence''). Challenges to fisheries governance are widespread under RCP8.5 with regional hotspots such as the Arctic and tropical Pacific Ocean (''medium confidence''). {3.5.2, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.4.2, Figure SPM.3}

	'''B.8.2''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png]] The decline in warm-water coral reefs is projected to greatly compromise the services they provide to society, such as food provision (''high confidence''), coastal protection (''high confidence'') and tourism (''medium confidence''). Increases in the risks for seafood security (''medium confidence'') associated with decreases in seafood availability are projected to elevate the risk to nutritional health in some communities highly dependent on seafood (''medium confidence''), such as those in the Arctic, West Africa, and Small Island Developing States. Such impacts compound any risks from other shifts in diets and food systems caused by social and economic changes and climate change over land (''medium confidence''). {3.4.3, 5.4.2, 6.4.2}		'''B.8.2''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png\|100px]] The decline in warm-water coral reefs is projected to greatly compromise the services they provide to society, such as food provision (''high confidence''), coastal protection (''high confidence'') and tourism (''medium confidence''). Increases in the risks for seafood security (''medium confidence'') associated with decreases in seafood availability are projected to elevate the risk to nutritional health in some communities highly dependent on seafood (''medium confidence''), such as those in the Arctic, West Africa, and Small Island Developing States. Such impacts compound any risks from other shifts in diets and food systems caused by social and economic changes and climate change over land (''medium confidence''). {3.4.3, 5.4.2, 6.4.2}

	'''B.8.3''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png]] Global warming compromises seafood safety (''medium confidence'') through human exposure to elevated bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants and mercury in marine plants and animals (''medium confidence''), increasing prevalence of waterborne ''Vibrio'' pathogens (''medium confidence''), and heightened likelihood of harmful algal blooms (''medium confidence''). These risks are projected to be particularly large for human communities with high consumption of seafood, including coastal Indigenous communities (''medium confidence''), and for economic sectors such as fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism (''high confidence''). {3.4.3, 5.4.2, Box 5.3}		'''B.8.3''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png\|100px]] Global warming compromises seafood safety (''medium confidence'') through human exposure to elevated bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants and mercury in marine plants and animals (''medium confidence''), increasing prevalence of waterborne ''Vibrio'' pathogens (''medium confidence''), and heightened likelihood of harmful algal blooms (''medium confidence''). These risks are projected to be particularly large for human communities with high consumption of seafood, including coastal Indigenous communities (''medium confidence''), and for economic sectors such as fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism (''high confidence''). {3.4.3, 5.4.2, Box 5.3}

	'''B.8.4''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png]] Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and their services put key cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods at risk (''medium confidence''), including through shifts in the distribution or abundance of harvested species and diminished access to fishing or hunting areas. This includes potentially rapid and irreversible loss of culture and local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge, and negative impacts on traditional diets and food security, aesthetic aspects, and marine recreational activities (''medium confidence''). {3.4.3, 3.5.3, 5.4.2}		'''B.8.4''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png\|100px]] Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and their services put key cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods at risk (''medium confidence''), including through shifts in the distribution or abundance of harvested species and diminished access to fishing or hunting areas. This includes potentially rapid and irreversible loss of culture and local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge, and negative impacts on traditional diets and food security, aesthetic aspects, and marine recreational activities (''medium confidence''). {3.4.3, 3.5.3, 5.4.2}

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	'''B.7.2''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] Permafrost thaw-induced subsidence of the land surface is projected to impact overlying urban and rural communication and transportation infrastructure in the Arctic and in high mountain areas (''medium confidence''). The majority of Arctic infrastructure is located in regions where permafrost thaw is projected to intensify by mid-century. Retrofitting and redesigning infrastructure has the potential to halve the costs arising from permafrost thaw and related climate-change impacts by 2100 (''medium confidence''). {2.3.4, 3.4.1, 3.4.3}		'''B.7.2''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] Permafrost thaw-induced subsidence of the land surface is projected to impact overlying urban and rural communication and transportation infrastructure in the Arctic and in high mountain areas (''medium confidence''). The majority of Arctic infrastructure is located in regions where permafrost thaw is projected to intensify by mid-century. Retrofitting and redesigning infrastructure has the potential to halve the costs arising from permafrost thaw and related climate-change impacts by 2100 (''medium confidence''). {2.3.4, 3.4.1, 3.4.3}

	'''B.7.3''' [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png]] High mountain tourism, recreation and cultural assets are projected to be negatively affected by future cryospheric changes (''high confidence''). Current snowmaking technologies are projected to be less effective in reducing risks to ski tourism in a warmer climate in most parts of Europe, North America, and Japan, in particular at 2°C global warming and beyond (''high confidence''). {2.3.5, 2.3.6}		'''B.7.3''' [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png\|100px]] High mountain tourism, recreation and cultural assets are projected to be negatively affected by future cryospheric changes (''high confidence''). Current snowmaking technologies are projected to be less effective in reducing risks to ski tourism in a warmer climate in most parts of Europe, North America, and Japan, in particular at 2°C global warming and beyond (''high confidence''). {2.3.5, 2.3.6}

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	<!-- END IMG -->		<!-- END IMG -->
	<span id="c-implementing-responses-to-ocean-and-cryosphere-change"></span>		<span id="c-implementing-responses-to-ocean-and-cryosphere-change"></span>

	== C Implementing responses to ocean and cryosphere change ==		== C Implementing responses to ocean and cryosphere change ==

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Projected Risks for Ecosystems

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	==== Projected Risks for Ecosystems ====		==== Projected Risks for Ecosystems ====

	'''B.4 Future land cryosphere changes will continue to alter terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in high mountain and polar regions with major shifts in species distributions resulting in changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and eventual loss of globally unique biodiversity (medium confidence). Wildfire is projected to increase significantly for the rest of this century across most tundra and boreal regions, and also in some mountain regions (medium confidence). {2.3.3, Box 3.4, 3.4.3}~~''' '''~~'''		'''B.4 Future land cryosphere changes will continue to alter terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in high mountain and polar regions with major shifts in species distributions resulting in changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and eventual loss of globally unique biodiversity (medium confidence). Wildfire is projected to increase significantly for the rest of this century across most tundra and boreal regions, and also in some mountain regions (medium confidence). {2.3.3, Box 3.4, 3.4.3}'''

	B.4.1 [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png]] In high mountain regions, further upslope migration by lower-elevation species, range contractions, and increased mortality will lead to population declines of many alpine species, especially glacier- or snow-dependent species (high confidence), with local and eventual global species loss (medium confidence). The persistence of alpine species and sustaining ecosystem services depends on appropriate conservation and adaptation measures (high confidence). {2.3.3} ~~''''''~~		'''B.4.1''' [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png\|100px]] In high mountain regions, further upslope migration by lower-elevation species, range contractions, and increased mortality will lead to population declines of many alpine species, especially glacier- or snow-dependent species (high confidence), with local and eventual global species loss (medium confidence). The persistence of alpine species and sustaining ecosystem services depends on appropriate conservation and adaptation measures (high confidence). {2.3.3}

	B.4.2 [[File:219efacb8ac4464b2e76514065b22cc7 SPM-Icon-oxoo.png]] On Arctic land, a loss of globally unique biodiversity is projected as limited refugia exist for some High-Arctic species and hence they are outcompeted by more temperate species (medium confidence). Woody shrubs and trees are projected to expand to cover 24–52% of Arctic tundra by 2050 (medium confidence). The boreal forest is projected to expand at its northern edge, while diminishing at its southern edge where it is replaced by lower biomass woodland/shrublands (medium confidence). {3.4.3, Box 3.4}		'''B.4.2''' [[File:219efacb8ac4464b2e76514065b22cc7 SPM-Icon-oxoo.png\|100px]] On Arctic land, a loss of globally unique biodiversity is projected as limited refugia exist for some High-Arctic species and hence they are outcompeted by more temperate species (medium confidence). Woody shrubs and trees are projected to expand to cover 24–52% of Arctic tundra by 2050 (medium confidence). The boreal forest is projected to expand at its northern edge, while diminishing at its southern edge where it is replaced by lower biomass woodland/shrublands (medium confidence). {3.4.3, Box 3.4}

	B.4.3 [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] Permafrost thaw and decrease in snow will affect Arctic and mountain hydrology and wildfire, with impacts on vegetation and wildlife (medium confidence). About 20% of Arctic land permafrost is vulnerable to abrupt permafrost thaw and ground subsidence, which is projected to increase small lake area by over 50% by 2100 for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). Even as the overall regional water cycle is projected to intensify, including increased precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge to the Arctic Ocean, decreases in snow and permafrost may lead to soil drying with consequences for ecosystem productivity and disturbances (medium confidence). Wildfire is projected to increase for the rest of this century across most tundra and boreal regions, and also in some mountain regions, while interactions between climate and shifting vegetation will influence future fire intensity and frequency (medium confidence). {2.3.3, 3.4.1, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, SPM B.1}		'''B.4.3''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] Permafrost thaw and decrease in snow will affect Arctic and mountain hydrology and wildfire, with impacts on vegetation and wildlife (medium confidence). About 20% of Arctic land permafrost is vulnerable to abrupt permafrost thaw and ground subsidence, which is projected to increase small lake area by over 50% by 2100 for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). Even as the overall regional water cycle is projected to intensify, including increased precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge to the Arctic Ocean, decreases in snow and permafrost may lead to soil drying with consequences for ecosystem productivity and disturbances (medium confidence). Wildfire is projected to increase for the rest of this century across most tundra and boreal regions, and also in some mountain regions, while interactions between climate and shifting vegetation will influence future fire intensity and frequency (medium confidence). {2.3.3, 3.4.1, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, SPM B.1}

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	==== Projected Risks for People and Ecosystem Services ====		==== Projected Risks for People and Ecosystem Services ====

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	'''B.3.3''' [[File:f83f15a29ea2d8a2d2ddc3ce832f4aaa SPM-Icon-oxxo.png\|100px]] The rate of global mean sea level rise is projected to reach 15 mm yr –1 (10–20 mm yr –1 , ''likely'' range) under RCP8.5 in 2100, and to exceed several centimetres per year in the 22nd century. Under RCP2.6, the rate is projected to reach 4 mm yr -1 (2–6 mm yr –1 , ''likely'' range) in 2100. Model studies indicate multi-meter rise in sea level by 2300 (2.3–5.4 m for RCP8.5 and 0.6–1.07 m under RCP2.6) (''low confidence''), indicating the importance of reduced emissions for limiting sea level rise. Processes controlling the timing of future ice-shelf loss and the extent of ice sheet instabilities could increase Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise to values substantially higher than the ''likely'' range on century and longer time-scales (''low confidence''). Considering the consequences of sea level rise that a collapse of parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet entails, this high impact risk merits attention. {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3, 4.1, 4.2.3}		'''B.3.3''' [[File:f83f15a29ea2d8a2d2ddc3ce832f4aaa SPM-Icon-oxxo.png\|100px]] The rate of global mean sea level rise is projected to reach 15 mm yr –1 (10–20 mm yr –1 , ''likely'' range) under RCP8.5 in 2100, and to exceed several centimetres per year in the 22nd century. Under RCP2.6, the rate is projected to reach 4 mm yr -1 (2–6 mm yr –1 , ''likely'' range) in 2100. Model studies indicate multi-meter rise in sea level by 2300 (2.3–5.4 m for RCP8.5 and 0.6–1.07 m under RCP2.6) (''low confidence''), indicating the importance of reduced emissions for limiting sea level rise. Processes controlling the timing of future ice-shelf loss and the extent of ice sheet instabilities could increase Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise to values substantially higher than the ''likely'' range on century and longer time-scales (''low confidence''). Considering the consequences of sea level rise that a collapse of parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet entails, this high impact risk merits attention. {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3, 4.1, 4.2.3}

	'''B.3.4''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] Global mean sea level rise will cause the frequency of extreme sea level events at most locations to increase. Local sea levels that historically occurred once per century (historical centennial events) are projected to occur at least annually at most locations by 2100 under all RCP scenarios (''high confidence''). Many low-lying megacities and small islands (including SIDS) are projected to experience historical centennial events at least annually by 2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The year when the historical centennial event becomes an annual event in the mid-latitudes occurs soonest in RCP8.5, next in RCP4.5 and latest in RCP2.6. The increasing frequency of high water levels can have severe impacts in many locations depending on the level of exposure (''high confidence''). {4.2.3, 6.3, Figures SPM.4, SPM.5}		'''B.3.4''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png\|100px]] Global mean sea level rise will cause the frequency of extreme sea level events at most locations to increase. Local sea levels that historically occurred once per century (historical centennial events) are projected to occur at least annually at most locations by 2100 under all RCP scenarios (''high confidence''). Many low-lying megacities and small islands (including SIDS) are projected to experience historical centennial events at least annually by 2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The year when the historical centennial event becomes an annual event in the mid-latitudes occurs soonest in RCP8.5, next in RCP4.5 and latest in RCP2.6. The increasing frequency of high water levels can have severe impacts in many locations depending on the level of exposure (''high confidence''). {4.2.3, 6.3, Figures SPM.4, SPM.5}

	'''B.3.5''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png]] Significant wave heights (the average height from trough to crest of the highest one-third of waves) are projected to increase across the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific (''high confidence'') and Baltic Sea (''medium confidence'') and decrease over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea under RCP8.5 (''high confidence''). Coastal tidal amplitudes and patterns are projected to change due to sea level rise and coastal adaptation measures (''very likely''). Projected changes in waves arising from changes in weather patterns, and changes in tides due to sea level rise, can locally enhance or ameliorate coastal hazards (''medium confidence)'' . {6.3.1, 5.2.2}		'''B.3.5''' [[File:22af16650531e42ab6972bf52565981a SPM-Icon-oxxx.png\|100px]] Significant wave heights (the average height from trough to crest of the highest one-third of waves) are projected to increase across the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific (''high confidence'') and Baltic Sea (''medium confidence'') and decrease over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea under RCP8.5 (''high confidence''). Coastal tidal amplitudes and patterns are projected to change due to sea level rise and coastal adaptation measures (''very likely''). Projected changes in waves arising from changes in weather patterns, and changes in tides due to sea level rise, can locally enhance or ameliorate coastal hazards (''medium confidence)'' . {6.3.1, 5.2.2}

	'''B.3.6''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png]] The average intensity of tropical cyclones, the proportion of Category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones and the associated average precipitation rates are projected to increase for a 2°C global temperature rise above any baseline period (''medium confidence''). Rising mean sea levels will contribute to higher extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (''very high confidence''). Coastal hazards will be exacerbated by an increase in the average intensity, magnitude of storm surge and precipitation rates of tropical cyclones. There are greater increases projected under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 from around mid-century to 2100 (''medium confidence''). There is ''low confidence'' in changes in the future frequency of tropical cyclones at the global scale. {6.3.1}		'''B.3.6''' [[File:3dcc514bf2acf9f1b7861bf877ef79a9 SPM-Icon-ooxo.png\|100px]] The average intensity of tropical cyclones, the proportion of Category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones and the associated average precipitation rates are projected to increase for a 2°C global temperature rise above any baseline period (''medium confidence''). Rising mean sea levels will contribute to higher extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (''very high confidence''). Coastal hazards will be exacerbated by an increase in the average intensity, magnitude of storm surge and precipitation rates of tropical cyclones. There are greater increases projected under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 from around mid-century to 2100 (''medium confidence''). There is ''low confidence'' in changes in the future frequency of tropical cyclones at the global scale. {6.3.1}

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Projected Physical Changes25

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	'''B.1. Global-scale glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw, and decline in snow cover and Arctic sea ice extent are projected to continue in the near-term (2031–2050) due to surface air temperature increases (high confidence), with unavoidable consequences for river runoff and local hazards (high confidence). The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are projected to lose mass at an increasing rate throughout the 21st century and beyond (high confidence). The rates and magnitudes of these cryospheric changes are projected to increase further in the second half of the 21st century in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (high confidence). Strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades are projected to reduce further changes after 2050 (high confidence). {2.2, 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2, 3.3, 3.4, Figure SPM.1, SPM Box SPM.1}'''		'''B.1. Global-scale glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw, and decline in snow cover and Arctic sea ice extent are projected to continue in the near-term (2031–2050) due to surface air temperature increases (high confidence), with unavoidable consequences for river runoff and local hazards (high confidence). The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are projected to lose mass at an increasing rate throughout the 21st century and beyond (high confidence). The rates and magnitudes of these cryospheric changes are projected to increase further in the second half of the 21st century in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (high confidence). Strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades are projected to reduce further changes after 2050 (high confidence). {2.2, 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2, 3.3, 3.4, Figure SPM.1, SPM Box SPM.1}'''

	'''B.1.1''' [[File:d36c4e81147e753b78bf397873d1c249 SPM-Icon-xoxo.png]] Projected glacier mass reductions between 2015 and 2100 (excluding the ice sheets) range from 18 ± 7% (likely range) for RCP2.6 to 36 ± 11% (likely range) for RCP8.5, corresponding to a sea level contribution of 94 ± 25 mm (likely range) sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, and 200 ± 44 mm (likely range) for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). Regions with mostly smaller glaciers (e.g., Central Europe, Caucasus, North Asia, Scandinavia, tropical Andes, Mexico, eastern Africa and Indonesia), are projected to lose more than 80% of their current ice mass by 2100 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence), and many glaciers are projected to disappear regardless of future emissions (very high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2, Figure SPM.1}		'''B.1.1''' [[File:d36c4e81147e753b78bf397873d1c249 SPM-Icon-xoxo.png\|100px]] Projected glacier mass reductions between 2015 and 2100 (excluding the ice sheets) range from 18 ± 7% (likely range) for RCP2.6 to 36 ± 11% (likely range) for RCP8.5, corresponding to a sea level contribution of 94 ± 25 mm (likely range) sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, and 200 ± 44 mm (likely range) for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). Regions with mostly smaller glaciers (e.g., Central Europe, Caucasus, North Asia, Scandinavia, tropical Andes, Mexico, eastern Africa and Indonesia), are projected to lose more than 80% of their current ice mass by 2100 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence), and many glaciers are projected to disappear regardless of future emissions (very high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2, Figure SPM.1}

	'''B.1.2''' [[File:d36c4e81147e753b78bf397873d1c249 SPM-Icon-xoxo.png]] In 2100, the Greenland Ice Sheet’s projected contribution to GMSL rise is 0.07 m (0.04–0.12 m, likely range) under RCP2.6, and 0.15 m (0.08–0.27 m, likely range) under RCP8.5. In 2100, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to contribute 0.04 m (0.01–0.11 m, likely range) under RCP2.6, and 0.12 m (0.03–0.28 m, likely range) under RCP8.5. The Greenland Ice Sheet is currently contributing more to sea level rise than the Antarctic Ice Sheet (high confidence), but Antarctica could become a larger contributor by the end of the 21st century as a consequence of rapid retreat (low confidence). Beyond 2100, increasing divergence between Greenland and Antarctica’s relative contributions to GMSL rise under RCP8.5 has important consequences for the pace of relative sea level rise in the Northern Hemisphere. {3.3.1, 4.2.3, 4.2.5, 4.3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3, Figure SPM.1}		'''B.1.2''' [[File:d36c4e81147e753b78bf397873d1c249 SPM-Icon-xoxo.png\|100px]] In 2100, the Greenland Ice Sheet’s projected contribution to GMSL rise is 0.07 m (0.04–0.12 m, likely range) under RCP2.6, and 0.15 m (0.08–0.27 m, likely range) under RCP8.5. In 2100, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to contribute 0.04 m (0.01–0.11 m, likely range) under RCP2.6, and 0.12 m (0.03–0.28 m, likely range) under RCP8.5. The Greenland Ice Sheet is currently contributing more to sea level rise than the Antarctic Ice Sheet (high confidence), but Antarctica could become a larger contributor by the end of the 21st century as a consequence of rapid retreat (low confidence). Beyond 2100, increasing divergence between Greenland and Antarctica’s relative contributions to GMSL rise under RCP8.5 has important consequences for the pace of relative sea level rise in the Northern Hemisphere. {3.3.1, 4.2.3, 4.2.5, 4.3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3, Figure SPM.1}

	'''B.1.3''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] Arctic autumn and spring snow cover are projected to decrease by 5–10%, relative to 1986–2005, in the near-term (2031–2050), followed by no further losses under RCP2.6, but an additional 15–25% loss by the end of century under RCP8.5 (high confidence). In high mountain areas, projected decreases in low elevation mean winter snow depth, compared to 1986–2005, are likely 10–40% by 2031–2050, regardless of emissions scenario (high confidence). For 2081–2100, this projected decrease is likely 10–40 % for RCP2.6 and 50–90% for RCP8.5. {2.2.2, 3.3.2, 3.4.2, Figure SPM.1}		'''B.1.3''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] Arctic autumn and spring snow cover are projected to decrease by 5–10%, relative to 1986–2005, in the near-term (2031–2050), followed by no further losses under RCP2.6, but an additional 15–25% loss by the end of century under RCP8.5 (high confidence). In high mountain areas, projected decreases in low elevation mean winter snow depth, compared to 1986–2005, are likely 10–40% by 2031–2050, regardless of emissions scenario (high confidence). For 2081–2100, this projected decrease is likely 10–40 % for RCP2.6 and 50–90% for RCP8.5. {2.2.2, 3.3.2, 3.4.2, Figure SPM.1}
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	'''B.1.4''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] Widespread permafrost thaw is projected for this century (very high confidence) and beyond. By 2100, projected near-surface (within 3–4 m) permafrost area shows a decrease of 24 ± 16% (likely range) for RCP2.6 and 69 ± 20% (likely range) for RCP8.5. The RCP8.5 scenario leads to the cumulative release of tens to hundreds of billions of tons (GtC) of permafrost carbon as CO 2<sup>[[#fn:26\|26]]</sup> and methane to the atmosphere by 2100 with the potential to exacerbate climate change (medium confidence). Lower emissions scenarios dampen the response of carbon emissions from the permafrost region (high confidence). Methane contributes a small fraction of the total additional carbon release but is significant because of its higher warming potential. Increased plant growth is projected to replenish soil carbon in part, but will not match carbon releases over the long term (medium confidence). {2.2.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, Figure SPM.1, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1}		'''B.1.4''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] Widespread permafrost thaw is projected for this century (very high confidence) and beyond. By 2100, projected near-surface (within 3–4 m) permafrost area shows a decrease of 24 ± 16% (likely range) for RCP2.6 and 69 ± 20% (likely range) for RCP8.5. The RCP8.5 scenario leads to the cumulative release of tens to hundreds of billions of tons (GtC) of permafrost carbon as CO 2<sup>[[#fn:26\|26]]</sup> and methane to the atmosphere by 2100 with the potential to exacerbate climate change (medium confidence). Lower emissions scenarios dampen the response of carbon emissions from the permafrost region (high confidence). Methane contributes a small fraction of the total additional carbon release but is significant because of its higher warming potential. Increased plant growth is projected to replenish soil carbon in part, but will not match carbon releases over the long term (medium confidence). {2.2.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, Figure SPM.1, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1}

	'''B.1.5''' [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png]] In many high mountain areas, glacier retreat and permafrost thaw are projected to further decrease the stability of slopes, and the number and area of glacier lakes will continue to increase (high confidence). Floods due to glacier lake outburst or rain-on-snow, landslides and snow avalanches, are projected to occur also in new locations or different seasons (high confidence). {2.3.2}		'''B.1.5''' [[File:4d299f9da92412c8279a7422468e6e12 SPM-Icon-xooo.png\|100px]] In many high mountain areas, glacier retreat and permafrost thaw are projected to further decrease the stability of slopes, and the number and area of glacier lakes will continue to increase (high confidence). Floods due to glacier lake outburst or rain-on-snow, landslides and snow avalanches, are projected to occur also in new locations or different seasons (high confidence). {2.3.2}

	'''B.1.6''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] River runoff in snow-dominated or glacier-fed high mountain basins is projected to change regardless of emissions scenario (very high confidence), with increases in average winter runoff (high confidence) and earlier spring peaks (very high confidence). In all emissions scenarios, average annual and summer runoff from glaciers are projected to peak at or before the end of the 21st century (high confidence), e.g., around mid-century in High Mountain Asia, followed by a decline in glacier runoff. In regions with little glacier cover (e.g., tropical Andes, European Alps) most glaciers have already passed this peak (high confidence). Projected declines in glacier runoff by 2100 (RCP8.5) can reduce basin runoff by 10% or more in at least one month of the melt season in several large river basins, especially in High Mountain Asia during the dry season (low confidence). {2.3.1}		'''B.1.6''' [[File:7dd9d5f1c0e829eec2bf341c5154813e SPM-Icon-xxoo.png\|100px]] River runoff in snow-dominated or glacier-fed high mountain basins is projected to change regardless of emissions scenario (very high confidence), with increases in average winter runoff (high confidence) and earlier spring peaks (very high confidence). In all emissions scenarios, average annual and summer runoff from glaciers are projected to peak at or before the end of the 21st century (high confidence), e.g., around mid-century in High Mountain Asia, followed by a decline in glacier runoff. In regions with little glacier cover (e.g., tropical Andes, European Alps) most glaciers have already passed this peak (high confidence). Projected declines in glacier runoff by 2100 (RCP8.5) can reduce basin runoff by 10% or more in at least one month of the melt season in several large river basins, especially in High Mountain Asia during the dry season (low confidence). {2.3.1}

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	'''C.1. Impacts of climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere increasingly challenge current governance efforts to develop and implement adaptation responses from local to global scales, and in some cases pushing them to their limits. People with the highest exposure and vulnerability are often those with lowest capacity to respond (''high confidence''). {1.5, 1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 2–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3, 2.4, 3.2.4, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 4.1, 4.3.3, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.9}'''		'''C.1. Impacts of climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere increasingly challenge current governance efforts to develop and implement adaptation responses from local to global scales, and in some cases pushing them to their limits. People with the highest exposure and vulnerability are often those with lowest capacity to respond (''high confidence''). {1.5, 1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 2–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3, 2.4, 3.2.4, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 4.1, 4.3.3, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.9}'''

	'''C.1.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] The temporal scales of climate change impacts in ocean and cryosphere and their societal consequences operate on time horizons which are longer than those of governance arrangements (e.g., planning cycles, public and corporate decision making cycles, and financial instruments). Such temporal differences challenge the ability of societies to adequately prepare for and respond to long-term changes including shifts in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (''high confidence''). Examples include changing landslides and floods in high mountain regions and risks to important species and ecosystems in the Arctic, as well as to low-lying nations and islands, small island nations, other coastal regions and to coral reef ecosystems. {2.3.2, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.3, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.9}		'''C.1.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] The temporal scales of climate change impacts in ocean and cryosphere and their societal consequences operate on time horizons which are longer than those of governance arrangements (e.g., planning cycles, public and corporate decision making cycles, and financial instruments). Such temporal differences challenge the ability of societies to adequately prepare for and respond to long-term changes including shifts in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (''high confidence''). Examples include changing landslides and floods in high mountain regions and risks to important species and ecosystems in the Arctic, as well as to low-lying nations and islands, small island nations, other coastal regions and to coral reef ecosystems. {2.3.2, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.3, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.9}

	'''C.1.2''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Governance arrangements (e.g., marine protected areas, spatial plans and water management systems) are, in many contexts, too fragmented across administrative boundaries and sectors to provide integrated responses to the increasing and cascading risks from climate-related changes in the ocean and/or cryosphere (''high confidence''). The capacity of governance systems in polar and ocean regions to respond to climate change impacts has strengthened recently, but this development is not sufficiently rapid or robust to adequately address the scale of increasing projected risks (''high confidence''). In high mountains, coastal regions and small islands, there are also difficulties in coordinating climate adaptation responses, due to the many interactions of climatic and non-climatic risk drivers (such as inaccessibility, demographic and settlement trends, or land subsidence caused by local activities) across scales, sectors and policy domains (''high confidence''). {2.3.1, 3.5.3, 4.4.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Box 5.6, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1}		'''C.1.2''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] Governance arrangements (e.g., marine protected areas, spatial plans and water management systems) are, in many contexts, too fragmented across administrative boundaries and sectors to provide integrated responses to the increasing and cascading risks from climate-related changes in the ocean and/or cryosphere (''high confidence''). The capacity of governance systems in polar and ocean regions to respond to climate change impacts has strengthened recently, but this development is not sufficiently rapid or robust to adequately address the scale of increasing projected risks (''high confidence''). In high mountains, coastal regions and small islands, there are also difficulties in coordinating climate adaptation responses, due to the many interactions of climatic and non-climatic risk drivers (such as inaccessibility, demographic and settlement trends, or land subsidence caused by local activities) across scales, sectors and policy domains (''high confidence''). {2.3.1, 3.5.3, 4.4.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Box 5.6, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1}

	'''C.1.3''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] There are a broad range of identified barriers and limits for adaptation to climate change in ecosystems (''high confidence''). Limitations include the space that ecosystems require, non-climatic drivers and human impacts that need to be addressed as part of the adaptation response, the lowering of adaptive capacity of ecosystems because of climate change, and the slower ecosystem recovery rates relative to the recurrence of climate impacts, availability of technology, knowledge and financial support, and existing governance arrangements (''medium confidence''). {3.5.4, 5.5.2}		'''C.1.3''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] There are a broad range of identified barriers and limits for adaptation to climate change in ecosystems (''high confidence''). Limitations include the space that ecosystems require, non-climatic drivers and human impacts that need to be addressed as part of the adaptation response, the lowering of adaptive capacity of ecosystems because of climate change, and the slower ecosystem recovery rates relative to the recurrence of climate impacts, availability of technology, knowledge and financial support, and existing governance arrangements (''medium confidence''). {3.5.4, 5.5.2}

	'''C.1.4''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Financial, technological, institutional and other barriers exist for implementing responses to current and projected negative impacts of climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere, impeding resilience building and risk reduction measures (''high confidence''). Whether such barriers reduce adaptation effectiveness or correspond to adaptation limits depends on context specific circumstances, the rate and scale of climate changes and on the ability of societies to turn their adaptive capacity into effective adaptation responses. Adaptive capacity continues to differ between as well as within communities and societies (''high confidence''). People with highest exposure and vulnerability to current and future hazards from ocean and cryosphere changes are often also those with lowest adaptive capacity, particularly in low-lying islands and coasts, Arctic and high mountain regions with development challenges (''high confidence''). {2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.7, Box 2.4, 3.5.2, 4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Boxes 2 and 3 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 9}		'''C.1.4''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] Financial, technological, institutional and other barriers exist for implementing responses to current and projected negative impacts of climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere, impeding resilience building and risk reduction measures (''high confidence''). Whether such barriers reduce adaptation effectiveness or correspond to adaptation limits depends on context specific circumstances, the rate and scale of climate changes and on the ability of societies to turn their adaptive capacity into effective adaptation responses. Adaptive capacity continues to differ between as well as within communities and societies (''high confidence''). People with highest exposure and vulnerability to current and future hazards from ocean and cryosphere changes are often also those with lowest adaptive capacity, particularly in low-lying islands and coasts, Arctic and high mountain regions with development challenges (''high confidence''). {2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.7, Box 2.4, 3.5.2, 4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Boxes 2 and 3 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 9}

	<div id="article-spm-cimplementing-responses-to-ocean-and-cryosphere-change-block-2"></div>		<div id="article-spm-cimplementing-responses-to-ocean-and-cryosphere-change-block-2"></div>
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	'''C.2. The far-reaching services and options provided by ocean and cryosphere-related ecosystems can be supported by protection, restoration, precautionary ecosystem-based management of renewable resource use, and the reduction of pollution and other stressors (''high confidence''). Integrated water management (''medium confidence'') and ecosystem-based adaptation (''high confidence'') approaches lower climate risks locally and provide multiple societal benefits. However, ecological, financial, institutional and governance constraints for such actions exist (''high confidence''), and in many contexts ecosystem-based adaptation will only be effective under the lowest levels of warming (''high confidence''). {2.3.1, 2.3.3, 3.2.4, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.2, 5.2.2, 5.4.2, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Figure SPM.5}'''		'''C.2. The far-reaching services and options provided by ocean and cryosphere-related ecosystems can be supported by protection, restoration, precautionary ecosystem-based management of renewable resource use, and the reduction of pollution and other stressors (''high confidence''). Integrated water management (''medium confidence'') and ecosystem-based adaptation (''high confidence'') approaches lower climate risks locally and provide multiple societal benefits. However, ecological, financial, institutional and governance constraints for such actions exist (''high confidence''), and in many contexts ecosystem-based adaptation will only be effective under the lowest levels of warming (''high confidence''). {2.3.1, 2.3.3, 3.2.4, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4.2, 5.2.2, 5.4.2, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Figure SPM.5}'''

	'''C.2.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png]] Networks of protected areas help maintain ecosystem services, including carbon uptake and storage, and enable future ecosystem-based adaptation options by facilitating the poleward and altitudinal movements of species, populations, and ecosystems that occur in response to warming and sea level rise (''medium confidence''). Geographic barriers, ecosystem degradation, habitat fragmentation and barriers to regional cooperation limit the potential for such networks to support future species range shifts in marine, high mountain and polar land regions. (''high confidence''). {2.3.3, 3.2.3, 3.3.2, 3.5.4, 5.5.2, Box 3.4}		'''C.2.1''' [[File:c5f1f5f7e69e3c69653136cbc5a42640 SPM-Icon-xxxx.png\|100px]] Networks of protected areas help maintain ecosystem services, including carbon uptake and storage, and enable future ecosystem-based adaptation options by facilitating the poleward and altitudinal movements of species, populations, and ecosystems that occur in response to warming and sea level rise (''medium confidence''). Geographic barriers, ecosystem degradation, habitat fragmentation and barriers to regional cooperation limit the potential for such networks to support future species range shifts in marine, high mountain and polar land regions. (''high confidence''). {2.3.3, 3.2.3, 3.3.2, 3.5.4, 5.5.2, Box 3.4}

	'''C.2.2''' [[File:5f7f347d033531dcf31fbb1ace99b0a7 SPM-Icon-xoxx.png]] Terrestrial and marine habitat restoration, and ecosystem management tools such as assisted species relocation and coral gardening, can be locally effective in enhancing ecosystem-based adaptation (''high confidence''). Such actions are most successful when they are community-supported, are science-based whilst also using local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge, have long-term support that includes the reduction or removal of non-climatic stressors, and under the lowest levels of warming (''high confidence''). For example, coral reef restoration options may be ineffective if global warming exceeds 1.5°C, because corals are already at high risk (''very high confidence'') at current levels of warming. {2.3.3, 4.4.2, 5.3.7, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Box 5.5, Figure SPM.3}		'''C.2.2''' [[File:5f7f347d033531dcf31fbb1ace99b0a7 SPM-Icon-xoxx.png\|100px]] Terrestrial and marine habitat restoration, and ecosystem management tools such as assisted species relocation and coral gardening, can be locally effective in enhancing ecosystem-based adaptation (''high confidence''). Such actions are most successful when they are community-supported, are science-based whilst also using local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge, have long-term support that includes the reduction or removal of non-climatic stressors, and under the lowest levels of warming (''high confidence''). For example, coral reef restoration options may be ineffective if global warming exceeds 1.5°C, because corals are already at high risk (''very high confidence'') at current levels of warming. {2.3.3, 4.4.2, 5.3.7, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Box 5.5, Figure SPM.3}

	'''C.2.3''' [[File:37d9ca019c63e0a7a080aaca0b2016e4 SPM-Icon-oxox.png\|100px]] Strengthening precautionary approaches, such as rebuilding overexploited or depleted fisheries, and responsiveness of existing fisheries management strategies reduces negative climate change impacts on fisheries, with benefits for regional economies and livelihoods (''medium confidence''). Fisheries management that regularly assesses and updates measures over time, informed by assessments of future ecosystem trends, reduces risks for fisheries (''medium confidence'') but has limited ability to address ecosystem change. {3.2.4, 3.5.2, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Figure SPM.5}		'''C.2.3''' [[File:37d9ca019c63e0a7a080aaca0b2016e4 SPM-Icon-oxox.png\|100px]] Strengthening precautionary approaches, such as rebuilding overexploited or depleted fisheries, and responsiveness of existing fisheries management strategies reduces negative climate change impacts on fisheries, with benefits for regional economies and livelihoods (''medium confidence''). Fisheries management that regularly assesses and updates measures over time, informed by assessments of future ecosystem trends, reduces risks for fisheries (''medium confidence'') but has limited ability to address ecosystem change. {3.2.4, 3.5.2, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Figure SPM.5}
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	== Footnotes ==		== Footnotes ==