IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 - Revision history

Laura: /* Cross-Chapter Box 8: 1.5°C Warmer Worlds */

2026-05-29T14:09:40Z

Cross-Chapter Box 8: 1.5°C Warmer Worlds

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	<span id="faqs-frequently-asked-questions"></span>		<span id="faqs-frequently-asked-questions"></span>

Laura: /* Cross-Chapter Box 8: 1.5°C Warmer Worlds */

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Cross-Chapter Box 8: 1.5°C Warmer Worlds

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	<span id="contributing-authors-2"></span>		<span id="contributing-authors-2"></span>

	~~======~~ Contributing Authors ~~======~~		'''Contributing Authors'''

	* Neville Ellis (Australia)		* Neville Ellis (Australia)

Laura: /* Lead Authors */

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Lead Authors

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	<span id="section-4"></span>		<span id="section-4"></span>
	<span id="lead-authors-3"></span>		<span id="lead-authors-3"></span>
	~~======~~ Lead Authors ~~======~~		'''Lead Authors'''

	* Sonia I. Seneviratne (Switzerland)		* Sonia I. Seneviratne (Switzerland)
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	<span id="contributing-authors-2"></span>		<span id="contributing-authors-2"></span>

	====== Contributing Authors ======		====== Contributing Authors ======

Laura: /* 3.7.2.5 Human systems */

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3.7.2.5 Human systems

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	<span id="cross-chapter-box-8-1.5c-warmer-worlds"></span>		<span id="cross-chapter-box-8-1.5c-warmer-worlds"></span>
			<div class="container-box col-cross">

	== Cross-Chapter Box 8: 1.5°C Warmer Worlds ==		== Cross-Chapter Box 8: 1.5°C Warmer Worlds ==

Laura: /* Cross-Chapter Box 7: Land-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal in Relation to1.5°C of Global Warming */

2026-05-29T14:06:10Z

Cross-Chapter Box 7: Land-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal in Relation to1.5°C of Global Warming

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	<span id="section-3"></span>		<span id="section-3"></span>
	<span id="lead-authors-2"></span>		<span id="lead-authors-2"></span>
	~~======~~ Lead Authors ~~======~~		'''Lead Authors'''

	* Rachel Warren (United Kingdom)		* Rachel Warren (United Kingdom)
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	<span id="implications-beyond-the-end-of-the-century"></span>		<span id="implications-beyond-the-end-of-the-century"></span>
	=== 3.6.3 Implications Beyond the End of the Century ===		=== 3.6.3 Implications Beyond the End of the Century ===

Laura: /* 3.6.2.3 Atmospheric compounds (aerosols and methane) */

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3.6.2.3 Atmospheric compounds (aerosols and methane)

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	<span id="cross-chapter-box-7-land-based-carbon-dioxide-removal-in-relation-to1.5c-of-global-warming"></span>		<span id="cross-chapter-box-7-land-based-carbon-dioxide-removal-in-relation-to1.5c-of-global-warming"></span>
			<div class="container-box col-cross">

	== Cross-Chapter Box 7: Land-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal in Relation to1.5°C of Global Warming ==		== Cross-Chapter Box 7: Land-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal in Relation to1.5°C of Global Warming ==

Laura: /* Box 3.6: Economic Damages from Climate Change */

2026-05-29T14:05:24Z

Box 3.6: Economic Damages from Climate Change

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	The economic damages of climate change in the USA are projected to be large (Hsiang et al., 2017; Yohe, 2017)<sup>[[#fn:r1267\|1267]]</sup>. Hsiang et al. (2017)<sup>[[#fn:r1268\|1268]]</sup> shows that the USA stand to lose -0.1 to 1.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 1.5°C warming. Yohe (2017)<sup>[[#fn:r1269\|1269]]</sup> calculated transient temperature trajectories from a linear relationship with contemporaneous cumulative emissions under a median no-policy baseline trajectory that brings global emissions to roughly 93 GtCO <sub>2</sub> yr <sup>–1</sup> by the end of the century (Fawcett et al., 2015)<sup>[[#fn:r1270\|1270]]</sup>, with 1.75°C per 1000 GtCO <sub>2</sub> as the median estimate. Associated aggregate economic damages in decadal increments through the year 2100 are estimated in terms of the percentage loss of GDP at the median, 5th percentile and 95th percentile transient temperature (Hsiang et al., 2017)<sup>[[#fn:r1271\|1271]]</sup>. The results for the baseline no-policy case indicate that economic damages along median temperature change and median damages (median-median) reach 4.5% of GDP by 2100, with an uncertainty range of 2.5% and 8.5% resulting from different combinations of temperature change and damages. Avoided damages from achieving a 1.5°C temperature limit along the median-median case are nearly 4% (range 2–7%) by 2100. Avoided damages from achieving a 2°C temperature limit are only 3.5% (range 1.8–6.5%). Avoided damages from achieving 1.5°C versus 2°C are modest at about 0.35% (range 0.20–0.65%) by 2100. The values of achieving the two temperature limits do not diverge significantly until 2040, when their difference tracks between 0.05 and 0.13%; the differences between the two temperature targets begin to diverge substantially in the second half of the century.		The economic damages of climate change in the USA are projected to be large (Hsiang et al., 2017; Yohe, 2017)<sup>[[#fn:r1267\|1267]]</sup>. Hsiang et al. (2017)<sup>[[#fn:r1268\|1268]]</sup> shows that the USA stand to lose -0.1 to 1.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 1.5°C warming. Yohe (2017)<sup>[[#fn:r1269\|1269]]</sup> calculated transient temperature trajectories from a linear relationship with contemporaneous cumulative emissions under a median no-policy baseline trajectory that brings global emissions to roughly 93 GtCO <sub>2</sub> yr <sup>–1</sup> by the end of the century (Fawcett et al., 2015)<sup>[[#fn:r1270\|1270]]</sup>, with 1.75°C per 1000 GtCO <sub>2</sub> as the median estimate. Associated aggregate economic damages in decadal increments through the year 2100 are estimated in terms of the percentage loss of GDP at the median, 5th percentile and 95th percentile transient temperature (Hsiang et al., 2017)<sup>[[#fn:r1271\|1271]]</sup>. The results for the baseline no-policy case indicate that economic damages along median temperature change and median damages (median-median) reach 4.5% of GDP by 2100, with an uncertainty range of 2.5% and 8.5% resulting from different combinations of temperature change and damages. Avoided damages from achieving a 1.5°C temperature limit along the median-median case are nearly 4% (range 2–7%) by 2100. Avoided damages from achieving a 2°C temperature limit are only 3.5% (range 1.8–6.5%). Avoided damages from achieving 1.5°C versus 2°C are modest at about 0.35% (range 0.20–0.65%) by 2100. The values of achieving the two temperature limits do not diverge significantly until 2040, when their difference tracks between 0.05 and 0.13%; the differences between the two temperature targets begin to diverge substantially in the second half of the century.
			</div>

	<span id="implications-of-different-1.5c-and-2c-pathways"></span>		<span id="implications-of-different-1.5c-and-2c-pathways"></span>

	== 3.6 Implications of Different 1.5°C and 2°C Pathways ==		== 3.6 Implications of Different 1.5°C and 2°C Pathways ==

Laura: /* 3.5.5.10 Agricultural systems: livestock in the tropics and subtropics */

2026-05-29T14:05:12Z

3.5.5.10 Agricultural systems: livestock in the tropics and subtropics

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	<span id="box-3.6-economic-damages-from-climate-change"></span>		<span id="box-3.6-economic-damages-from-climate-change"></span>
			<div class="container-box col-regular">

	== Box 3.6: Economic Damages from Climate Change ==		== Box 3.6: Economic Damages from Climate Change ==

Laura: /* Box 3.5: Small Island Developing States (SIDS) */

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Box 3.5: Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

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	At 1.5°C, limits to adaptation will be reached for several key impacts in SIDS, resulting in residual impacts, as well as loss and damage (Section 1.1.1, Cross-Chapter Box 12 in Chapter 5). Limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C versus 2°C is expected to reduce a number of risks, particularly when coupled with adaptation efforts that take into account sustainable development (Section 3.4.2 and 5.6.3.1, Box 4.3 and 5.3, Mycoo, 2017; Thomas and Benjamin, 2017)<sup>[[#fn:r851\|851]]</sup>. Region-specific pathways for SIDS exist to address climate change (Section 5.6.3.1, Boxes 4.6 and 5.3, Cross-Chapter Box 11 in Chapter 4).		At 1.5°C, limits to adaptation will be reached for several key impacts in SIDS, resulting in residual impacts, as well as loss and damage (Section 1.1.1, Cross-Chapter Box 12 in Chapter 5). Limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C versus 2°C is expected to reduce a number of risks, particularly when coupled with adaptation efforts that take into account sustainable development (Section 3.4.2 and 5.6.3.1, Box 4.3 and 5.3, Mycoo, 2017; Thomas and Benjamin, 2017)<sup>[[#fn:r851\|851]]</sup>. Region-specific pathways for SIDS exist to address climate change (Section 5.6.3.1, Boxes 4.6 and 5.3, Cross-Chapter Box 11 in Chapter 4).
			</div>
	<span id="food-nutrition-security-and-food-production-systems-including-fisheries-and-aquaculture"></span>		<span id="food-nutrition-security-and-food-production-systems-including-fisheries-and-aquaculture"></span>
	=== 3.4.6 Food, Nutrition Security and Food Production Systems (Including Fisheries and Aquaculture) ===		=== 3.4.6 Food, Nutrition Security and Food Production Systems (Including Fisheries and Aquaculture) ===

Laura: /* 3.4.5.7 Adapting to coastal change */

2026-05-29T14:02:54Z

3.4.5.7 Adapting to coastal change

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	== Box 3.5: Small Island Developing States (SIDS) ==		== Box 3.5: Small Island Developing States (SIDS) ==